Ranking the top 10 drafted NHL goalie prospects: Jesper Wallstedt leads Scott Wheelers 2023 list

Welcome to Part 2 of the 2023 edition of my drafted NHL prospect rankings.

Today’s ranking of the league’s top 10 goalie prospects follows yesterday’s top 50 drafted skaters list.

After initially publishing this project as one combined ranking, the switch to two lists was made in 2020 in order to respond to reader demands for evaluations of a wider range of goaltenders reflective of the one-sixth share of the players on the ice that they represent (when skaters and goalies were included in a single list, only a couple of netminders usually made it).

Advertisement

Under my criteria, to be eligible for inclusion, a goalie must:

  • Be under 25 years old. This age criteria is more reflective of the typical goalie trajectory, allowing for the continued consideration of goalies who are very much still prospects.
  • Not currently be established as one of their NHL club’s two go-to options. I give myself some arbitrary leeway here. You’ll notice, for example, that 24-year-old goaltender Stuart Skinner, who still qualifies as an NHL rookie, is considered graduated because he has played exclusively with the Oilers this season, while 23-year-old goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who is currently playing for the Sabres, remained eligible due to a combination of his younger age and time spent in the AHL this season.
  • 1. Jesper Wallstedt, G, 20 (Minnesota Wild — No. 20, 2021)
    July 2022 rank: No. 1 (change: none)

    It takes a lot for me to rank a goalie at No. 1 on a list, and there’s a reason Wallstedt is the only goalie to top any of this year’s pool rankings.

    He’s the clearcut best goalie prospect on the planet for me and his play of late in the AHL — after it took him a couple of months in the fall to find himself at the new level/in the new place — has only reaffirmed that. His game has remarkable polish and maturity. There’s just a control to his game that is so singular and rare in goalies his age. I’ve written about it in the past as almost robotic, and that’s truly the best descriptor for it. Wallstedt’s a big 6-foot-3, 213-pound (he fills the net for his size) goalie who plays sharp lines positionally, holds those lines, and swallows the first shot so that he doesn’t have to make a ton of second saves. He’s incredibly calm in the net, staring down shooters and reading them. He covers the bottom of the net so well and doesn’t seem to get beat along the ice. Few shots sneak through him. His movement is compact, he tracks through layers incredibly well to find pucks, and he reads opposing shooters so well that he’s rarely beat cleanly.

    There’s a minor question mark or two around every young goalie in the sport and with Wallstedt I don’t see a single hole or area of weakness that worries me. I’d maybe like to see him develop a little more quickness (he’s strong across the net and low-to-high on pushes, but he sits a little heavy over his skates and I wouldn’t say his feet are fast per se). But otherwise, he’s got all of the makings of a true No. 1 starter.

    My annual top 50 drafted NHL prospects ranking is out @TheAthletic!

    Featuring 18,000 words of analysis, 55 honourable mentions, player tiers, and more.

    The full 2023 list: https://t.co/JpsFEKs7Ax

    — Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler) February 13, 2023

    2. Yaroslav Askarov, G, 20 (Nashville Predators — No. 11, 2020)
    July 2022 rank: No. 2 (change: none)

    Advertisement

    In his first season in North America, Askarov has played well for his age (it feels like he has been on the scene forever but because of his June birthday he just turned 20 last summer) in Milwaukee.

    My belief in his tools or his upside as a starting NHL goalie is not deterred, but I have paused at times over the last two seasons in terms of categorizing him in the same light that I do Wild first-round pick Jesper Wallstedt (Wallstedt is the clear top goalie prospect in the game for me at the moment). Askarov’s raw talent certainly makes him unique. His ability to change directions in the net, stay on top of shooters, track their hands, and make reactionary saves is elite. His athleticism is, too. He regularly makes second and third-chance saves holding firm in his positioning even when he’s laying on the ice. But there are tools in his game that still need some refinement.

    There are still times when he gets frozen over his glove hand, something NHL teams will exploit. He can still look jittery in the net, bouncing on his toes and moving to pucks (which he says is to keep himself focused and make some of those quick-twitch saves I talked about). But his agility and reads are so impressive that he can steal games when he’s at his best, and make the difficult saves that others just can’t get to or stick with. There isn’t a goalie prospect in the world with quicker feet through shuffles or more explosiveness side-to-side or low-to-high than Askarov. That blend of power and speed combined with his extended early track record gives him a high upside. It will be important to keep in mind his age and not rush him through the AHL despite his pedigree though.

    3. Dustin Wolf, G, 21 (Calgary Flames — No. 214, 2019)
    July 2022 rank: No. 4 (change: +1)

    If you’ve been following my work for any amount of time, you’ll know that Wolf is my favourite goalie prospect in the sport (doesn’t necessarily mean he’s the best, but I love watching him play). When the Flames drafted him at the end of the seventh round, he ranked in the second round of my 2019 draft board, as my second-ranked goalie behind only Spencer Knight. He possesses elite footwork and tracking. He never loses sight of the puck and anticipates the movements of opposing carriers so, so well, making him extremely hard to beat with a deke. You’ll rarely see a player beat him side to side on a breakaway because he can stick on top of them. The results are there. He’s athletic, he’s a superb positional goalie, and his technical ability is refined. Wolf has everything you look for in a top goalie prospect today except for the size. After a bit of a slow start to his second season in the AHL, he has been virtually unbeatable since. There is no reason to believe he won’t be an NHL goalie. I’m confident he’s going to be a really good one, too. His time is coming.

    Advertisement

    4. Devon Levi, G, 21 (Buffalo Sabres — No. 212, 2020)
    July 2022 rank: No. 5 (change: +1)

    Levi had a season for the ages at Northeastern last year, posting a .952 save percentage across 32 games and winning both the Mike Richter Award as college hockey’s top goalie and the Tim Taylor Award as its top rookie. His journey from the CCHL to the world juniors and then the Olympics all during the pandemic was one of the best stories in hockey. He has been superb in his return to Northeastern behind a lesser Huskies team as a sophomore this year, too.

    He has exactly the skills smaller goalies need to be successful. Impressive control on his outside edges (and the patience to hold them), quick feet on his shuffles so that he can stick with dekes and go post-to-post or low-to-high to get to tough pucks, perfect reads on shooters, excellent tracking through and under traffic, and a battler’s mentality in the net which keeps him in plays even when he looks like he’s down and out on his knees. There aren’t a ton of 6-foot goalies in today’s NHL, at least not starting ones, but Levi, like Calgary’s Dustin Wolf, has all of the tools to become one. I’m a believer.

    5. Sebastian Cossa, G, 20 (Detroit Red Wings — No. 15, 2021)
    July 2022 rank: No. 3 (change: -2)

    Cossa is a huge (6-foot-6), powerful, athletic goalie, and those last two things don’t always come with the first. He’s a fiery, confident, talkative competitor who doesn’t like to get beat (which contrasts with the stoic demeanor we see in many goalies) and wants to command the net and the room. Bigger goalies often struggle with their movements and their recoveries, but neither is an issue for Cossa. His positioning (he does a really good job holding his outside edges to be patient on shots) and reflexes (he’s got great hands up high) help him block and grab a lot of pucks. But it’s his ability to bounce back into his stance or change directions with passes that separates him. His power through his pushes gives him rare side-to-side ability for a goalie that big.

    But there are also some question marks. Some of them are contextual, like how good the Oil Kings were in front of him for three years, and some of the leaks his game has displayed while playing behind teams with less structure in front of him (including in Hockey Canada camps and now this year in the ECHL, a league that’s notoriously hard on goalies). But other questions are about the tools, including some of the trouble he faces closing his five-hole because of his size (this is a major recurring issue, even though he does a really good job kicking pucks aimed for the lower corners) and the way he can occasionally lose himself in his net on scramble plays (those strong pushes to get to tough lateral saves can pull him off his lines). He can get pulled out of his net overcommitting on dekes, too.

    His natural gifts give him undeniable upside, though. When he’s set and square to shots (as he almost always is), he’s tough to beat. I’ve seen him look unflappable and make point-blank save after point-blank save when he’s dialed in. I’ve also seen him look rattled as shots sneak through holes they shouldn’t be finding. I still think he’s got starter upside due to his combination of size, dexterity and rare explosiveness in the net, but he’s got work to do, and patience will be imperative.

    Advertisement

    6. Lukas Dostal, G, 22 (Anaheim Ducks — No. 85, 2018)
    July 2022 rank: No. 6 (change: none)

    Dostal’s on a run of four really strong age-adjusted seasons and is owed a full-time NHL job at this point.

    He’s an average-sized (maybe smallish) goalie who has turned his 6-foot-2 frame into an asset by adding some strength (he’s now over 190 pounds, which is about 20 pounds of muscle from where he was not long ago) and power to a game that was already built on agility. He’s got pristine technical ability, great hands (especially his glove), and quick feet which help him stick with dekes, track the play through screens, and make recovery saves on scrambles. Plus he holds his lines on his outside edges extremely well, limiting his movements when he needs to, staying compact, and playing his angles head-on. He has also proven, time and time again, that while his game requires movement, he’s in complete control and rarely swims. He’s going to be one of the Ducks’ two goalies long-term. The question now is just which one. He has certainly turned me from cautious a few years ago into a believer.

    7. Pyotr Kochetkov, G, 23 (Carolina Hurricanes — No. 36, 2019)
    July 2022 rank: Not ranked

    When goalies just keep getting results you have to respect them because of the ebbs and flows in performance that most of them face year-to-year. And Kotchetkov now has a body of work that you can’t ignore. After bouncing around levels and clubs for a couple of years in Russia in search of the opportunity those numbers demanded, it has been nice to see him find stability over the last two seasons in North America, establishing himself as the Hurricanes’ No. 3 for now and soon-to-be more than that (with Frederik Andersen and Antti Ranta both on expiring deals and Kochetkov on a new four-year contract, there’s a full-time job coming for him next year and maybe earlier). He used to be a little on the smaller side for a goalie but he grew a couple of inches late in his development to go from 6 feet to 6 feet 3, he’s quick on his feet (and knees), he’s technically sound, and he’s athletic, relying on sharp angles to control the first rebound and his movement to make recovery saves. I like the way he tracks the play, too. My only critique of him for a long time was that he’d let the odd mid-danger shot squeak through his body or occasionally scramble, but he has worked hard to cut down on both of those things. He’s probably not going to become a true No. 1, but I like him to become more than a backup as a bit of a strong 1B.

    8. Akira Schmid, G, 22 (New Jersey Devils — No. 136, 2018)
    July 2022 rank: Not ranked

    Schmid has been a bit of a revelation these last two years, making the almost unheard-of USHL to AHL/NHL jump (a difficult one, to say the least) look relatively easy.

    Advertisement

    He’s a 6-foot-5 goalie who plays an aggressive, challenging style (though he has learned to pull back on that a little). He’s also a strong puck handler who is comfortable starting the breakout. He can play a little wide in his stance, which can limit his changes of direction and mobility (though I would say he moves well in other ways, including down into his butterfly to shut his five-hole, and on his knees when he has to battle), but he’s also got good control face-up against shooters and plays his lines. When things break down, he can get beat, but he doesn’t let a lot of low-to-mid danger shots through. There’s a lot to like and even continue to untap there.

    9. Samuel Ersson, G, 23 (Philadelphia Flyers — No. 143, 2018)
    July 2022 rank: Not ranked 

    Ersson’s statistical profile has always been a little bit of a roller coaster to follow. There was his excellent post-draft season in HockeyAllsvenskan and internationally which established him as one of the top goalies in the 1999 age group. Then he made the jump to the SHL full time at 20 and played a surprising amount on a poor team to mixed results. Then he played to strong results in his second season in the SHL. Then he finally got groin surgery after dealing with a nagging issue and lost almost all of his first season in North America. And now he has returned and played quite well in both the AHL and NHL in what is essentially his rookie campaign over here.

    He isn’t a particularly big or powerful goalie but he reads the play well, holds his angles, and then has the agility needed to get to a lot of east-to-west pucks to make difficult saves. He has also worked on his habits so that he can stay more compact and controlled in the net and it has noticeably cut down on how many shots are cleanly beating him. He has moved his No. 2/3 projection to a potential 1B projection with his play this year, I think.

    10. Drew Commesso, G, 20 (Chicago Blackhawks — No. 46, 2020)
    July 2022 rank: No. 8 (change: -2)

    After a .915 freshman year at BU, Commesso climbed back to a .914 sophomore season with the Terriers following a slow start (for him and the team in front of him, which was banged up and not at its best out of the gate), and has done the same again this year as a young (he’s still just 20) junior after he gave up six goals in his second start of the year and has played well ever since.

    I see a mature makeup as a kid and goalie. At 6-foot-2, he’s not big by today’s standards for a goalie, but he blends a studious approach to the position with sharp angles, sound technique, and a calming, poised demeanour to keep shots in his chest, control rebounds, settle down plays and hold firm to his edges. And while he’s not a dynamic athlete, he can fall back on his athleticism when the play does break down, he’s efficient in his movements, he’s quick on his feet and he doesn’t put himself into many scrambles because of the way he reads the play. Commesso reliably makes the saves that he should and plays the same game-to-game. He doesn’t steal a ton of starts and I wouldn’t say he’s got any A-plus tools that really pop, but there’s not a lot in his game that you can nitpick either. I’m not convinced he’s going to be a starter at the next level, but I — and the rest of the hockey world (including USA Hockey, who’ve already brought him to men’s worlds and the Olympics) — fully expect him to become an NHL goalie.

    The Tiers

    All told, 30 goalies were strongly considered for this year’s ranking, with the 20 who missed the cut featured below as honorable mentions.

    Advertisement

    As always, the ranking is broken down into tiers below to give you a better sense of where the divisions are between one group and the next. This year’s ranking is divided into four tiers. They are: 1, 2-3, 4-5 and 6+. Consider that third tier as a group that runs from 6-30 (though there’s probably one more divide in there between the goalies I seriously considered and the ones that only got passing consideration).

    Rank

      

    Player

      

    Age

      

    Draft

      

    Team

      

    1

    Jesper Wallstedt

    20

    2021

    2

    Yaroslav Askarov

    20

    2020

    3

    Dustin Wolf

    21

    2019

    4

    Devon Levi

    21

    2020

    5

    Sebastian Cossa

    20

    2021

    6

    Lukas Dostal

    22

    2018

    7

    Pyotr Kochetkov

    23

    2019

    8

    Akira Schmid

    22

    2018

    9

    Samuel Ersson

    23

    2018

    10

    Drew Commesso

    20

    2020

    Honorable mentions (sorted alphabetically):

    Hugo Alnefelt (Tampa Bay Lightning)
    Justus Annunen (Colorado Avalanche)
    Joel Blomqvist (Pittsburgh Penguins)
    Calle Clang (Anaheim Ducks)
    Dylan Garand (New York Rangers)
    Mitchell Gibson (Washington Capitals)
    Mack Guzda (Florida Panthers)
    Dennis Hildeby (Toronto Maple Leafs)
    Joel Hofer (St. Louis Blues)
    Niklas Kokko (Seattle Kraken)
    Carl Lindbom (Vegas Golden Knights)
    Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (Buffalo Sabres)
    Erik Portillo (Buffalo Sabres)
    Arseni Sergeyev (Calgary Flames)
    Arvid Soderblom (Chicago Blackhawks)
    Mads Sogaard (Ottawa Senators)
    Clay Stevenson (Washington Capitals)
    Daniil Tarasov (Columbus Blue Jackets)
    Joseph Woll (Toronto Maple Leafs)
    Vadim Zherenko (St. Louis Blues)

    (Illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; photos: Jonathan Kozub, Andy Devlin, Danny Murphy / Getty Images)

    ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57k2ptcXBmZ3xzfJFsZmlqX2aBcMDOqWSnoJxitLCty6KcZqiipMCxscKtqmZqYGeAbrbErKeeql2srq240q2cnaxf