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In the canonical “Simpsons” episode “Marge vs. the Monorail,” the town gathers to vote on how to spend the $3 million it earned by fining Mr. Burns. As Mayor Quimby attempts the pledge of allegiance and the minutes from the prior town hall, citizens one after another shout, “Get to the money!”
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This is what I think about in the early days of the major-league offseason, when every team is interested in players “at the right price” and every player is seeking $50 million more than you expected. Let’s just get to the money.
This is the second winter I’m projecting free-agent contracts for The Athletic. To do this, I’ve got a big Excel spreadsheet with a bunch of free-agent and extension contracts in it (mostly from the last decade, but some landmark contracts from earlier), as well as players’ performance in the years leading up to those contracts, as defined by FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. Whereas players get paid off home runs and saves in arbitration, I’ve found fWAR to be a solid (though not all-knowing) predictor of earnings on the open market. When I use WAR in this story, it’s referring to FanGraphs’ version of it.
I plug impending free agents into the spreadsheet, find players with similar levels of production before they signed their deals, and work off of those historical comps. Several points worth noting:
- I used to look at fWAR in samples from each of the last five seasons. Now I concentrate heavily on the most recent season and the combined production over the last three for starting pitchers and position players.
- For relievers, I look at one- and two-year samples. What happened five years ago isn’t really relevant for such a volatile position, and I’ve found more of a recency bias in contracts here than elsewhere.
- I’ve used the U.S. Bureau of Labor’s inflation calculator to translate contracts into “today’s money,” though I define “today” as the start of 2023.
- There remains a decent amount of subjective judgment that goes into creating the comparisons, and factors beyond fWAR play into that.
- I explained some of what I learned from last winter here.
Today, we’ll start with pitchers. Thursday, we’ll tackle position players. We’re saving Shohei Ohtani for that group because he likely won’t pitch in 2024, because frankly, the position players could use a bigger headliner, and because we like creating suspense.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 25
Pitchers moving from Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB don’t really fit my methodology; there’s no major-league WAR to go off of. One way to compensate for this is to look at pitchers’ NPB performance against that of their peers who then moved to the United States. To do this, I’ve constructed a crude form of “ERA+,” which gauges the pitcher’s ERA compared to the rest of the league in the three seasons before coming over. (It’s not actually ERA+ because it doesn’t account for park factors. Yamamoto’s home parks with Orix have traditionally been slightly pitcher-friendly.)
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By this measure, Yamamoto is the best NPB pitcher ever to be available to the major leagues, just outpacing Masahiro Tanaka.
In this table, NPB ERA+ is for the three years prior to signing in the majors. It is not adjusted for ballpark. MLB ERA+ is for the first three years in the majors, except for Kodai Senga, who has only played one major-league season.
Tanaka, who was also 25 when he switched leagues, signed a seven-year, $155 million deal with the Yankees, not including a $20 million posting fee. The Yankees’ investment in Tanaka would be valued at just under $225 million in today’s money.
With the changes to the posting fee — a team that signs Yamamoto would pay Orix $5 million (20 percent) for the first $25 million of Yamamoto’s contract, $4.375 million (17.5 percent) of the next $25 million and 15 percent of the remaining total over $50 million — the same $225 million investment would equal a contract worth seven years and $195 million for Yamamoto.
Let’s round that up just a touch for a contract of seven years and $203 million — $29 million per season — with a posting fee of $32.3 million. The total investment would be seven years and $235 million.
Projection: Seven years, $203 million

Heading into this season, I said Nola looked more like prime-age Max Scherzer heading into free agency than you probably expected, positing that he could potentially earn $200 million in a long-term extension. Instead, Nola had one of the roughest seasons of his career, meaning he’s posted subpar results in two of the last three campaigns.
A strong October, however, was a reminder of how good Nola can be, and in that regard, he reminds me a bit of Jon Lester’s free agency following the 2014 season. Like Nola, Lester had dealt with some uneven regular-season results over the previous few seasons. (In 2012-2013, Lester had a 53-start stretch with an ERA of 4.73; he was dominant in the 2013 postseason and then had his best regular season in his walk year in 2014.) The comparison makes some sense, and an even closer one remains eye-opening.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3 ▼ | Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 31 | 3.9 | 14.6 | ||||
2019 | 31 | 3.5 | 14.6 | 3 | 93.0 | 36.9 | |
2015 | 31 | 5.6 | 11.6 | 6 | 155.0 | 33.1 |
In this and the following tables, “Signed” is the first season of the contract, “Age” is the player’s age on June 30 of that first season. The “fWAR1” is FanGraphs’ wins above replacement the season before the contract was signed, “fWAR2” the FanGraphs’ wins above replacement for the two seasons before the contract was signed, etc. (These numbers can change slightly over time, so when possible I’ve used the values from when the contracts were signed.) “Yrs” is the years of the contract, “Total” the total value at the time it was signed, and “2023 AAV” the average annual value of the contract when accounting for inflation to today’s money.
It’s rare for a pitcher as consistently accomplished as Nola and as young as Nola to be available on the open market. He hasn’t missed a start due to injury since May 2017. And so I still think it’s reasonable for him to land $30 million per season on a deal that takes him through his age-36 season. Again, the industry as a whole (and the Phillies in particular) has shown an inclination to extend deals longer to lessen the AAV hit. But in a vacuum, I’d peg Nola at six years.
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Projection: Six years, $180 million
Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell, 31
This is a comparison a lot of teams will be making this winter.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
|
---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 31 | 4.3 | 10.2 | |
2024 | 31 | 4.1 | 9.8 |
Snell may very well win his second Cy Young. Montgomery has never made an All-Star team. Montgomery has been excellent in the postseason for Texas. Snell has never finished the sixth inning in a postseason start.
They arrive at their similar values through different means, and thus it’ll be fascinating to see how teams value them.
For Montgomery, a decade-old deal for Aníbal Sánchez and a recent one for Kevin Gausman make for good comps.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | 29 | 3.4 | 10.8 | 5 | 80.0 | 20.8 | |
2024 | 31 | 4.3 | 10.2 | ||||
2022 | 31 | 4.8 | 10.1 | 5 | 110.0 | 23.3 |
That establishes a pretty narrow range settling around five years and just above $20 million per season.
Snell’s success is more atypical. He doesn’t go deep into games, he walks a ton of batters, and he’s always pitching his way out of traffic. FanGraphs’ WAR reflects that, and he feels riskier because of it. But he’s been productive in his own way, showing a consistent knack for stranding runners and preventing runs. He owns the second-best career ERA of any hurler on the open market, behind only surefire Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw.
The reward here is pretty obvious, as shown during a Cy Young season in 2018 and another possible one this year. That kind of performance, especially in a walk year, should push Snell’s value higher.
Projection for Montgomery: Five years, $105 million
Projection for Snell: Five years, $135 million
Gray is set to hit the open market for the first time in his career coming off what WAR considers the best season of his career. He tossed more than 180 innings for the first time since 2015 and finished with an ERA below 3.00 for the first time since 2015. His 5.3 WAR this past season was the fourth-best of any starter and a win clear of the next best hitting free agency.
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The downside is he’s about to turn 34, and thus there isn’t a lot of precedent for a long-term deal. Chris Bassitt did well in free agency at 34 last winter, but Gray is a level above that.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 31 | 5.6 | 11.6 | 6 | 155.0 | 33.1 | |
2024 | 34 | 5.3 | 10.1 | ||||
2022 | 31 | 4.8 | 10.1 | 5 | 110.0 | 23.3 | |
2023 | 34 | 2.7 | 9.0 | 3 | 63.0 | 21.0 |
Gray is a little shy of Lester’s overall track record but compares favorably to Gausman. If teams stay on the shorter end of contract length at three years, that could bump up the AAV.
Projection: Three years, $72 million
Josh Hader, 30

A year after Edwin Díaz became the first reliever to cross the nine-figure threshold, Hader will aim to be the second. He’s been less consistent the past two seasons — especially a long slump in 2022 — and thus his recent production doesn’t quite align with what Díaz and other front-line closers have had going into free agency.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR2
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 31 | 2.9 | 6.8 | 3 | 54.0 | 20.5 | |
2023 | 29 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 5 | 102.0 | 20.4 | |
2017 | 29 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 5 | 80.0 | 19.7 | |
2017 | 28 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 5 | 86.0 | 21.2 | |
2020 | 31 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3 | 48.0 | 18.6 | |
2024 | 30 | 1.7 | 2.5 |
But while I usually narrow the focus for relievers to those most recent two seasons, Hader’s best years in 2018, 2019 and 2021 were absolutely dominant, and they’ll play into his next contract. The chance to add that kind of closer in free agency is rare, and Hader could thus earn close to Díaz’s average annual value.
These deals have tended to last through a pitcher’s age-33 season, which would mean a four-year contract for Hader. He’s not going to hit $100 million in that span, though perhaps a club option for a fifth season would take it that high.
Projection: Four years, $80 million
Eduardo Rodriguez, 31
Let’s compare Rodriguez to, well, Rodriguez.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 29 | 3.8 | 9.6 | 5 | 77.0 | 16.3 | |
2024 | 31 | 3.0 | 7.6 |
While Rodriguez’s WAR was worse this past season than it was in 2021, his primary numbers were better (ERA of 3.30 compared to 4.74). He’s two years older, yes, and he’s missed time in the past two seasons.
Rodriguez is opting out of three years and $49 million left on his deal with Detroit. At the very least, he should be able to tack on another year at that salary. Let’s give him two more.
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Projection: Five years, $80 million
The comps are pretty simple when you’re a pitcher who signs a lot of short-term deals later in your career.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 37.0 | 0.9 | 15.5 | 1 | 15.0 | 17.1 | |
2022 | 38 | 4.5 | 14.4 | 1 | 20.0 | 21.2 | |
2023 | 39.0 | 1.5 | 9.9 | 1 | 20.0 | 20.0 | |
2024 | 40 | 2.7 | 8.7 | ||||
2019 | 35 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 2 | 30.0 | 17.9 |
Morton’s one-year deals with Atlanta have been for $15 million, $20 million and $20 million. He was better last season than the one before his $15 million deal, but he’s also three years older.
Projection: One year, $16 million
Clayton Kershaw, 36
Let’s do the same thing with Kershaw:
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 35 | 3.8 | 10.8 | 1 | 20.0 | 20.0 | |
2022 | 34 | 3.4 | 10.6 | 1 | 17.0 | 18.0 | |
2024 | 36 | 2.3 | 9.6 |
By fWAR, Kershaw is coming off the worst season of his career; his ERA was still 2.46. If he does indeed want to play again in 2024, a one-year deal at $15 million works.
Projection: One year, $15 million
Lucas Giolito, 29, and Jack Flaherty, 28
Neither Giolito nor Flaherty assembled the walk year he hoped for. Both finished with ERAs in the high fours, performing notably worse after deadline deals to purported contenders.
At the end of the 2021 season, when he had just received down-ballot Cy Young votes for a third straight season, Giolito figured to be as big a pitching catch in this market as any. Instead, he’s experienced two subpar seasons — this past one was undone quite a bit by its peripatetic nature through Chicago, Anaheim and Cleveland.
The good news for Flaherty is that, for the first time in four seasons, he regularly took the mound in 2023. The bad news is he failed to find any consistency from start to start and only intermittently looked like the pitcher he was as a 23-year-old with a sub-1.00 WHIP and a fourth-place Cy Young finish in 2019.
And so there are clear pros and cons here: Both of these guys have been quite good in the majors, and they’re young enough to dream they can return to that form again. But neither has been that good that recently.
The temptation is to project a pair of pillow contracts for each: Bet on yourself with a one-year deal and emerge into the market next season, still relatively young for free agency (though possibly with a qualifying offer attached). But the pitching contracts I was lowest on last winter were for Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon — players who were a little younger in free agency (though not as young as either pitcher here) and carried a reliable floor of results along with strong pedigree from their days as top prospects.
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We can debate how “reliable” the floor is for Giolito and Flaherty. (We can debate it about Walker and Taillon, too, as each finished with ERAs worse than the league average in 2023.) But because of last year’s experience, I’d expect both Giolito and Flaherty to garner better offers than their strict numbers suggest.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 29 | 1.0 | 6.9 | ||||
2023 | 30 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 4 | 72.0 | 18.0 | |
2023 | 31 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 4 | 68.0 | 17.0 | |
2024 | 28 | 1.8 | 2.7 |
Giolito’s track record as an innings-eater makes him more palatable than Flaherty for a longer deal. Flaherty’s inconsistent availability probably limits the length of a commitment (and perhaps makes a pillow contract more appealing for him).
Projection for Giolito: Four years, $70 million
Projection for Flaherty: Three years, $45 million
Michael Wacha, 32
After three down seasons in his expected prime, Wacha has now delivered results well above average over the last two seasons, with an ERA+ of 127 in each for the Red Sox and Padres.
Let’s focus on some pitchers around Wacha’s age — just older than the usual free-agent pitcher — who were coming off solid seasons.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 33 | 2.0 | 6.9 | 2 | 24.0 | 13.9 | |
2016 | 30 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 2 | 22.0 | 13.9 | |
2024 | 32 | 2.6 | 5.2 | ||||
2019 | 32 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 3 | 30.0 | 11.9 | |
2023 | 33 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2 | 25.0 | 12.5 |
We’ve got a pretty narrow band of deals valued between $11 million and $14 million per season, typically for two years. Lynn landed a three-year pact at the same age as Wacha, and that looks about right. The third year might mean a little less on the AAV.
Projection: Three years, $36 million
Shōta Imanaga, 30
Let’s apply the same methodology used earlier for Yamamoto for Imanaga. (Imanaga’s home park with Yokohama has been slightly hitter-friendly.)
Player
| Age
| NPB ERA+
| MLB ERA+
|
---|---|---|---|
33 | 145 | 111 | |
28 | 142 | 95 | |
30 | 138 | ||
31 | 130 | 120 | |
33 | 127 | 102 | |
28 | 119 | 93 |
While Imanaga profiles more in the middle or back half of a rotation, predecessors like Hiroki Kuroda and Hisashi Iwakuma posted several very good major-league seasons.
Kuroda’s initial deal was for three years and $35.3 million back in 2008; he was a full free agent and did not require a posting fee. That deal in today’s money would be worth about $50 million. Yusei Kikuchi’s initial deal with Seattle was for four years and $56 million with a posting fee just above $10 million; it would equate to just under $79 million in today’s money.
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Imanaga will require a posting fee. He’s between Kikuchi and Kuroda in age, and he hasn’t been as good in NPB as either was. Extending the Kuroda deal to a fourth year but subtracting the posting fee from the contract value would leave the lefty with a deal for four years and $52 million.
Projection: Four years, $52 million
Tyler Mahle, 29
Mahle made five solid starts for the Twins before requiring Tommy John surgery toward the end of May. It’s possible, but not certain, that he pitches in 2024.
That makes him a prime candidate for a two-year deal in which he finishes his rehab this season and becomes a part of a club’s rotation in 2025, when he’ll still only be 30. While Minnesota’s July 2022 trade for Mahle backfired spectacularly, there’s a reason the Twins thought him worth that package of prospects: Mahle was really good before that point, especially when he didn’t pitch at Great American Ball Park.
So the question is: What is Mahle worth in 2025? Let’s look at one recent example of a pitcher just off Tommy John surgery.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 29 | 0.4 | 6.4 | ||||
2022 | 29 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 1 | 21.0 | 22.3 |
A two-year deal in the range of Syndergaard’s one-year deal could work, with the added benefit of lowering the luxury-tax hit for the year he is healthy.
Projection: Two years, $20 million
Frankie Montas, 31
Montas made it back from spring shoulder surgery to appear in one game on the final weekend of the season for the Yankees. Shoulder injuries tend to scare teams more than elbow surgeries, even, and so a one-year, incentive-laden get-healthy deal makes sense.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 38 | 1.3 | 11.1 | 1 | 13.0 | 13.8 | |
2024 | 31 | 0.0 | 6.0 | ||||
2018 | 37 | 1.8 | 5.6 | 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | |
2023 | 37 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
Older pitchers with less upside routinely get eight figures in those types of deals.
Projection: One year, $13 million
Seth Lugo, 34
Lugo is not as old as Rich Hill was when Hill emerged (at 37) as one of the game’s better starters back in 2015-2016. Lugo’s return to the rotation also isn’t quite as surprising as Hill’s was, in part because it wasn’t quite as good as Hill’s was. I’ll include one other more recent deal for a comparable pitcher.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 37 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3 | 48.0 | 19.7 | |
2023 | 33 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2 | 25.0 | 12.5 | |
2024 | 34 | 2.8 | 3.5 |
That said, after years of clamoring to start in Queens, Lugo ran with the opportunity in San Diego. He took the hill 26 times and threw nearly as many innings in 2023 as he did from 2020 to 2022. That makes him the rare 34-year-old with legitimate upside now that he has an innings base to build from. It’s not crazy to imagine the kind of three-year deal Hill signed and then paid off for the Dodgers last decade. Stripling provides a likelier blueprint, though.
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Projection: Two years, $26 million
Robert Stephenson, 31
A midseason trade from Pittsburgh to Tampa Bay meant a change in repertoire from a four-seam/slider mix to one dominated by cutters. The results were phenomenal for Stephenson, who turned in a 2.35 ERA with a microscopic 0.678 WHIP and an eight-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio in four months with the Rays.
We’ve seen players earn strong free-agent deals off of similar in-season turnarounds. A few years back, Drew Pomeranz earned a four-year deal from San Diego off of two solid months as a Brewers reliever. Pierce Johnson just signed a two-year deal with Atlanta after excelling over the final two months of this past season.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR2
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 31 | 0.9 | 1.2 | ||||
2024 | 33 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 2 | 14.3 | 7.1 | |
2020 | 31 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 4 | 34.0 | 9.9 |
While Stephenson lacks the longer track record of either of those relievers, he did showcase dominant results for twice as long. Four-year deals for non-closers have basically only been given out by the Padres (to Pomeranz and to Robert Suárez). A team may view Stephenson as a potential closer and cave for a fourth year. If not, a three-year deal at Pomeranz’s AAV in today’s money checks out.
Projection: Three years, $30 million
Jordan Hicks, 27

A 27-year-old free agent coming off his best season? That guy could sign for 10 years! Oh wait, he’s been volatile at the sport’s most volatile position? He can maybe sign for three years!
While Hicks’ unusual youth at free agency is mostly undercut by his position, it could merit him an additional year over a pitcher of comparable accomplishments who was older. The team that signs Hicks is hoping it’s buying in on the second or third floor, if not quite ground level. He was outstanding over the final four months of the season, achieving the results his stuff has long suggested possible.
Guys in Hicks’ position have typically signed for two years and about $8 million per season. Hicks could go for more from a team that wants him to close.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR2
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 31.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2 | 15.5 | 8.8 | |
2022 | 31 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 24.0 | 8.5 | |
2023 | 37 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 14.5 | 7.3 | |
2024 | 27 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Graveman got a third year, and perhaps one team stretches to give Hicks a fourth.
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Projection: Four years, $36 million
Mike Clevinger, 33
If Clevinger were a few years younger, his 2023 might have been good enough to land him a four-year deal, as similar walk years following Tommy John surgery did for Alex Cobb and Nathan Eovaldi a few years back.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | 29 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 4 | 68.0 | 20.2 | |
2024 | 33 | 2.2 | 2.6 | ||||
2018 | 30 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 4 | 57.0 | 17.2 |
But at 33, he’s probably looking more at the two-year deals those pitchers signed the next time they hit the open market.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 33 | 1.0 | 9.3 | 2 | 34.0 | 17.0 | |
2022 | 34 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2 | 20.0 | 10.6 | |
2024 | 33 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
As you can see, Eovaldi had developed more of a recent, consistent track record entering his free agency a year ago. Cobb makes the better comparison here.
Projection: Two years, $22 million
Craig Kimbrel, 36
A rough NLCS sullied an otherwise solid season for Kimbrel in the back end of the Philadelphia bullpen. While no longer the absolute shutdown closer he was earlier in his career, he’s largely recovered from a couple down seasons in Chicago. It’s a similar career arc to Kenley Jansen’s.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR2
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 35 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2 | 32.0 | 16.0 | |
2024 | 36 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
Jansen got two years last winter, but he’s a year younger than Kimbrel. Let’s knock one off that.
Projection: One year, $16 million
We’re firmly in one-year deal territory here for a trio of accomplished pitchers coming off subpar (for them) seasons. Lynn led the league in homers allowed. In his return from Tommy John surgery, Maeda missed two more months with a triceps strain and was pushed to the Minnesota bullpen for the playoffs. Off his own Tommy John surgery, Ryu completed the sixth inning in just one of his 11 starts.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 38 | 0.6 | 7.7 | 1 | 8.0 | 9.1 | |
2024 | 37 | 0.5 | 6.6 | ||||
2019 | 38 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 1 | 8.0 | 9.5 | |
2023 | 35 | 1.8 | 6.5 | 1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | |
2022 | 33 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 1 | 10.0 | 10.6 | |
2024 | 36 | 1.5 | 3.1 | ||||
2024 | 37 | 0.4 | 3.0 |
Lynn was very good in the years leading up to 2023, was better down the stretch with the Dodgers and generally takes the ball every fifth day.
While Maeda’s overall numbers in 2023 weren’t his best, he was quite good once healthy for the second half of the season. He’s not as durable as Lynn but has a chance of posting better results when on the mound.
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Ryu has taken a step back since his 2020 season. He, however, has a longer track record of standout performance than Maeda, and he pitched well upon his return from surgery this past season.
For all three of these pitchers (and for most players on one-year deals), expect incentives to be baked into the deal.
Projection for Lynn: One year, $10 million
Projection for Maeda: One year, $10 million
Projection for Ryu: One year, $11 million
While Heaney was healthier with Texas than he’d been in Los Angeles the year before, he didn’t produce the same high level of results as he did with the Dodgers. WAR considers that about an even tradeoff, and Heaney has the same kind of comps as he did last year, including himself:
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 31 | 1.0 | 4.8 | 1 | 8.5 | 9.0 | |
2023 | 32 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 2 | 25.0 | 12.5 | |
2024 | 33 | 1.3 | 3.5 | ||||
2023 | 31 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 4 | 26.0 | 6.5 | |
2019 | 30 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 |
(Wacha’s deal ended up paying him $7.5 million in 2023 with the chance to hit the open market again this winter.)
Heaney could end up with a deal structured similarly to the one he signed last year, for two years with the second coming as an option. For now, let’s stick with what he just earned for 2023.
Projection: One year, $12.5 million
Gibson doesn’t exactly own the award hardware as some others on this list, but his recent performance merits the comparison.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 38 | 1.3 | 11.1 | 1 | 13.0 | 13.8 | |
2017 | 44 | 2.4 | 7.7 | 1 | 12.5 | 15.4 | |
2024 | 36 | 2.6 | 7.5 | ||||
2020 | 36 | 2.5 | 6.4 | 1 | 18.0 | 20.9 | |
2023 | 37 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
Gibson’s age likely means he’s entered the one-year phase of his career, which contains the frustrating dynamic that coming off a better season than the winter before (as Gibson is) can be mitigated by being one year older (as anyone is). So despite being better in his walk year than he was when he earned a $10 million deal with Baltimore, let’s stick with that number again for one year.
Projection: One year, $10 million
Michael Lorenzen, 32
When Lorenzen followed up an All-Star first half with a no-hitter in his first home start with the Phillies, he looked headed for a significant payday in the winter. Like Giolito and Flaherty, though, he faceplanted down the stretch with his new team; Lorenzen did not make Philadelphia’s postseason rotation. Unlike Giolito and Flaherty, Lorenzen lacks a deeper track record of big-league success as a starter to sell himself with.
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Lorenzen’s comps place him pretty firmly in one-year deal territory.
Player
| Signed
| Age
| fWAR1
| fWAR3
| Yrs
| Total
| 2023 AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 37 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | |
2018 | 31 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 1 | 12.0 | 14.5 | |
2024 | 32 | 1.7 | 2.9 | ||||
2019 | 30 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | |
2019 | 31 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1 | 9.0 | 10.7 |
Projection: One year, $11 million
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